Create a baseline forecast

Applies To: Microsoft Dynamics AX 2012 R3

This topic describes how to create a baseline forecast by using Microsoft Dynamics AX 2012 R3 demand forecasting. A baseline forecast is an estimate of future demand that is based on historical demand. When you set up the parameters for demand forecasting, you define the types of demand transactions for which to collect historical data. When you create a baseline forecast, you define the period during which to collect historical data. The data is then loaded into a Microsoft SQL Server Analysis Services cube where the baseline forecast is calculated and stored. You can view the demand forecast by using an Excel file.

When you create a baseline forecast, you must first specify the parameters and filters that are used in the calculation. For example, you can create a baseline forecast that estimates demand based on transaction data from the past year for a specific company, for the coming month, and for a selected group of items.

Prerequisites

The following table shows the prerequisites that must be in place before you start.

Create a baseline forecast

To create a baseline forecast, follow these steps:

1. Click Master planning > Periodic > Demand forecasting > Generate statistical baseline forecast.

2. In the Historical horizon field group, select a start date and end date. These dates define the period during which data from historical transactions is collected and used to calculate the baseline forecast.

3. In the Baseline forecast start date field group, select a start date for the forecast. This field contains the start date of the new forecast bucket by default, but you can change it.

4. In the Filters field group, click Select to open a query where you can select the filter criteria to apply when the forecast is calculated. For example, you can select a specific intercompany planning group for which to calculate the forecast.

   The use of filters also improves performance.

5. In the Forecast bucket field, select a time unit for which forecast is calculated. For example, you can calculate a weekly forecast or a monthly forecast.

6. In the Forecast horizon field, enter a number of forecast buckets for which to calculate the forecast. For example, if you select a forecast bucket of a month, and enter a forecast horizon of 12, forecast is calculated for 12 months.

7. In the Freeze time fence field, enter a number of forecast buckets during which the forecast is frozen, and users may not modify it.

8. In the Manual adjustments field group, select the Transfer manual adjustments to the demand forecast check box to apply the manual adjustments that were made to previous demand forecasts, to the new forecast.

9. In the Demand forecast identification field group, enter a name for the forecast.

10. The Excel demand forecast file path field contains the location for saving the demand forecast file that is specified in the Demand forecasting parameters form by default, but you can override it.

11. Click OK to generate the forecast.

12. Double-click the Infolog that is displayed, to open and view the forecast.

Next step

After you create a baseline forecast, you can view it by using an Excel file. For more information, see View a demand forecast in Excel.

Related tasks

Set up demand forecasting

View a demand forecast in Excel

Adjust a demand forecast in Excel

Import a demand forecast to Microsoft Dynamics AX

Calculate past forecast accuracy

Remove outliers from historical transaction data when calculating a demand forecast

Technical information for system administrators

If you don't have access to the pages that are used to complete this task, contact your system administrator and provide the information that is shown in the following table.

See also

Business process: demand forecasting

Microsoft Time Series Technical Reference

Analytics in Microsoft Dynamics AX