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Remove outliers from historical transaction data when calculating a demand forecast

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Important

This content is archived and is not being updated. For the latest documentation, see Microsoft Dynamics 365 product documentation. For the latest release plans, see Dynamics 365 and Microsoft Power Platform release plans.

Applies To: Microsoft Dynamics AX 2012 R3

This topic describes how to exclude outliers from the historical data that are used to calculate a demand forecast. Outliers are data that are not considered to be part of the overall pattern of demand, for example, sales transactions that result from a clearance sale do not represent typical demand. Because outliers can affect forecast accuracy, it can be useful to exclude them from the calculation. In Microsoft Dynamics AX 2012 R3 demand forecasting, you can exclude outliers to improve forecast accuracy. Perform this optional task by using a query to select the specific transactions that you want to exclude.

Prerequisites

The following table shows the prerequisites that must be in place before you start.

Category

Prerequisite

Setup

Demand forecasting is set up. For more information, see Set up demand forecasting.

Data

A baseline forecast has been created. For more information, see Create a baseline forecast.

Remove outliers

To remove outliers from historical transactional data, follow these steps:

  1. Click Master planning > Setup > Demand forecasting > Outlier removal.

  2. Click New to create a query that defines which transactions to exclude from the historical data.

  3. Select the company for which the query applies, and then enter a name and description. The Query date field is filled with today’s date.

  4. Select the Active check box to exclude the transactions that are found by the query, from the historical data. This setting will take effect when you create a baseline forecast.

  5. Click Edit query. In the Outlier removal query form you can add, remove, and select the criteria that define which transactions will be excluded when the baseline forecast is calculated. For example, select a particular item or order transaction that you want to exclude.

    To create a query that is based on an existing query, select it, and then click Duplicate. You can use the query as it is. The Query date field identifies the version. Optionally, you can modify the name and description, and then click Edit query to modify the criteria.

  6. Click OK to run the query.

  7. Click Display transactions. The Outlier transactions form lists the transactions that meet the criteria that is defined in the query and that will be excluded from the historical data when the demand forecast is calculated.

Next step

After you’ve removed the outliers from the forecast calculation, you create the demand forecast. For more information, see Create a baseline forecast.

Set up demand forecasting

Create a baseline forecast

View a demand forecast in Excel

Adjust a demand forecast in Excel

Import a demand forecast to Microsoft Dynamics AX

Calculate past forecast accuracy

Technical information for system administrators

If you don't have access to the pages that are used to complete this task, contact your system administrator and provide the information that is shown in the following table.

Category

Prerequisite

Configuration keys

Click System administration > Setup > Licensing > License configuration. Expand the Trade license key, expand the Inventory forecast configuration key, and then select the Demand forecasting (ReqDemandPlanning) configuration key.

Security roles

To perform this task, you must be a member of the Production planner security role.

See also

Business process: demand forecasting